Ron Paul’s 2002 Predictions

This entry is part 3 of 40 in the series 2012A

Ruth W writes:
Ron Paul gave these predictions in April 2002. Is he a disciple?

What do you think?

JJ
It depends on how one would define disciple. He is definitely an intelligent man who unwaveringly stands by his beliefs. He sees the genius of the U.S. Constitution and many of the flaws in this country that can be corrected by it. He has taken the initiative to formulate ideas to correct many of our problems and then doggedly proceeded to move forward to plant them in the minds of all who will listen.

Right or wrong he is following the highest he knows with great determination and that is the path all must follow to arrive at true discipleship.

That said, let us take an objective look at the predictions you referenced. I watched the video and found it interesting and wondered about the feedback was on it on the web so I Googled it.

I found it interesting that his predictions were highly praised everywhere I looked, though I must say all this praise seemed to come from strong supporters. On the other hand, there seemed to be a famine of commentators making a critical analysis of his speech. It was either Ron Paul is great and like a prophet – or nothing. It almost made me wonder if non believers are afraid to criticize or analyze Ron Paul.

It therefore appears that I may be one of the few to write a critical objective analysis of Paul’s April 26, 2002 predictions. Keep in mind that the time frame he gave for these was 5-10 years and we are now in the tenth year – 2012. Here goes.

Ron Paul:
Our government intervention in the economy and in the private affairs of citizens, and the internal affairs of foreign countries, leads to uncertainty and many unintended consequences.

JJ
I’m on board with him here. This is certainly true. In fact any action made at any time, anywhere can lead to unintended consequences.

Ron Paul:
Here are some of the consequences about which we should be concerned.

I predict U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine, both the West Bank and the Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them.

JJ
This was kind of a no-brainer for anytime there is destruction anywhere in the world our tax dollars are sent to help. As the video noted Obama promised $900 Million to rebuild Gaza but can’t find any evidence that the aid materialized. Most of our aid has gone to provide for the necessities of life there.

Of course we spent money rebuilding Afghanistan. We always do this after a conflict ever since World War II.

Ron Paul:
Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East, but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons flowing to Israel and to Arab countries allied with the United States.

JJ
There was no peace. Conflict has never ceased there and of course we continued to support Israel and friendly Arab nations just as we always have.

Ron Paul:
U.S. troops and others will be used to monitor the “peace.”

JJ
The video gives strange “proof” of this statement. They present an article that states that the United States has helped monitor peace there for 30 years. If true Paul was merely stating what was already in existence to some degree. Actually, I do not recall reading of any monitoring that our actual troops have been doing between Israel and Palestine.

Ron Paul:
In time, an oil boycott will be imposed, with oil prices soaring to historic highs.

JJ
No oil boycott so far and it was a no-brainer to predict historic oil prices sometime in the next ten years. I predict we’ll have historic oil prices again within ten years.

Ron Paul:
Current Israeli-United States policies will solidify Arab Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. That will include those Muslim nations that in the past have fought against each other.

JJ
The Muslim nations are no more unified against us than in 2002.

Ron Paul:
Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists.

JJ
We’ve had the Arab Spring with some overthrows but this seemed to come from the people as a whole rather than fundamentalists. The fundamentalists will surely grab for all the power they can. Time will tell on this.

Ron Paul:
The U.N. will continue to condemn, through resolutions, Israeli-U.S. policies in the Middle East, and they will be ignored.

JJ
This is like predicting France will continue to make wine. Of course, this is to be expected.

Ron Paul:
Some European countries will clandestinely support the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits.

JJ
This was already happening when Paul made the prediction.

Ron Paul:
China, ironically assisted by American aid, much more openly will sell to militant Muslims the weapons they want, and will align herself with the Arab nations.

JJ
There’s evidence that China has sold weapons to militant Muslims but have used their own money for this – not U.S. aid.

Ron Paul:
The United States, with Tony Blair as head cheerleader, will attack Iraq without proper authority, and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result.

JJ
We did attack Iraq as many expected at the time of the prediction but it was not a major war and not the largest since World War II. Vietnam and the Korean war were much larger. In Vietnam we had over 500,000 troops and lost over 50,000 soldiers. We had about 125,000 in Iraq and only lost about 4,400 troops.

Ron Paul:
Major moves will be made by China, India, Russia, and Pakistan in Central Asia to take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages sought after for years.

JJ
Haven’t seen any of these major moves. China has attempted to purchase additional oil and commodities though. Haven’t seen land grabs.

Ron Paul:
The Karzai government will fail, and U.S. military presence will end in Afghanistan.

JJ
Not happened yet.

Ron Paul:
An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States.

JJ
Didn’t happen. Interest rates have been very low over the past 10 years.

Ron Paul:
Price inflation, with a major economic downturn, will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances, with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending.

JJ
We all knew that “exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending” would continue. I’ll bet even Ron Paul is surprised at how much Obama has spent.

We’ve definitely had an economic downturn but inflation has continued about the normal rate. There’s always some inflation.

Ron Paul:
Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate, with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money.

JJ
Credit is tighter now than when the prediction was made. Gold is seen as a good investment but it is not an alternative to money and has not returned to use as money except maybe for a handful of private transactions.

Ron Paul:
Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act.

JJ
I haven’t seen any “generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act” though every time Congress is in session our liberties are at risk.

Ron Paul:
The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment.

JJ
This definitely didn’t happen.

Ron Paul:
Many American military personnel and civilians will be killed in the coming conflict.

JJ
If he’s talking about Iraq the loss of military personnel was very low compared with wars of the past.

Ron Paul:
The leaders of whichever side loses the war will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes.

JJ
There was no International Criminal Court set up for Iraq war crimes.

Ron Paul:
The United States will not officially lose the war, but neither will we win. Our military and political leaders will not be tried by the International Criminal Court.

JJ
We did win the war in a couple weeks. Keeping the peace was the hard part. Our military and political leaders were not tried. No one of substance expected they would be.

Ron Paul:
The Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the Federal Government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives.

JJ
All thinkers at the time saw that indeed saw the government was expanding, though the radical part didn’t come in until Obama was president. He was right that this brought satisfaction to liberals but wrong on conservatives. I do not know one conservative who is happy about the overall radical expansion, especially the most radical part of all – Obamacare.

Ron Paul:
Military and police powers will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas.

JJ
The video references The National Defense Authorization Act which gives the President power to detain U.S. citizens without a trial if they are suspected of terrorism. This fine-tunes legislation (AUMF) that was passed Sept 14, 2011 so this power was already in place.

The national welfare state expanded in the U.S. but it was forced to contract in numerous other nations facing a financial meltdown. We have had a below average amount of military adventurism since the Iraq war began.

Ron Paul:
In due course, the Constitution will continue to be steadily undermined and the American Republic further weakened.

JJ
This has been going on for 200 years with a temporary reversals or slowdowns occurring now and then.

Ron Paul:
During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free, while they become more dependent on the government for economic security.

JJ
Perhaps his most accurate statement so far.

Ron Paul:
The war will prove to be divisive, with emotions and hatred growing between the various factions and special interests that drive our policies in the Middle East.

JJ
All wars are divisive, except those which are a life and death struggle for survival and even these are somewhat divisive.

Ron Paul:
Agitation from more class warfare will succeed in dividing us domestically, and believe it or not, I expect lobbyists will thrive more than ever during the dangerous period of chaos.

JJ
This was a pretty accurate description of what has happened. He ends his predictions with a successful one.

Conclusion:
I do not understand the awe that Ron Paul followers have about his prophetic abilities as the majority of his predictions here were either incorrect or can be argued to be so. I’d say that the average political savvy person could be just as accurate if he were to make predictions for the next ten years.

Although not impressed with his prophetic abilities I do give him credit for raising a warning voice of various real dangers that confronted us in 2002 and still apply to us today. Most people in our Congress just want to get along and do not want to ruffle any feathers but this does not stop Mr. Paul from speaking his mind. We need more representatives who are willing to speak up against government encroachment.

 

Copyright 2012 by J J Dewey

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